6/6/2026 — This week has moved the Commonwealth much closer to its first government shutdown than one might expect with 25 days still left in this fiscal year.
For most of last week, it felt like we were on the glide path for a budget deal.
Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee (SFAC) Chair L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) tweeted an image of white smoke emerging from Mr. Jefferson’s Capitol. Habemus budget? Nope.
The powerful Chair who has held up the adoption of a biennial budget since March noted she had a productive meeting with her counterpart, House Appropriations Committee (HAC) Chair Luke Torian (D-Prince William). Specifically, that they “are getting close to an agreement on how to fund core services.”
That made sense, because even earlier in the week, Governor Abigail Spanberger and Secretary of Finance Mark Sickles delivered a reforecast of FY 2027 and FY 2028 revenues. Jefferson Forum’s VP of Policy, Derrick Max, broke down what a reforecast is and what issues that might present to the budget’s structural balance. Officially, due to the revenue reforecast, the General Assembly has an additional $1.5 billion in revenues at their disposal to finalize their spending proposal to send to the Governor.
Believe it or not, my fellow Virginians, $1.5 billion was just enough.
While the controversy over the sales and use tax exemption for the data center industry has received the majority of attention, at the end of the day the Senate and House both passed budgets in March which relied on new revenue for all of their spending.
Some of that revenue disappeared when the Governor vetoed bills to approve skill games, a retail cannabis market, and a casino in Tysons Corner. But, with the $1.5 billion Secretary Sickles found, the demand for new taxes should have disappeared. SFAC and HAC members would be able to keep all the promises they made to constituent and special interest groups, without a bruising fight over new taxes.
Sadly, on Friday, with her classic epigrammatic wit, Chair Lucas said that her rapprochement with Torian has been derailed by the “Data Center Diva” (Governor Spanberger) and “Amazon Don” (Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth).
Senator Majority Leader Scott Surovell (D-Fairfax) also chimed in, blindly reporting that someone had suggested adopting a D.C. style continuing resolution – a notion he quickly rebuked. Separately, Lucas has informed reporters she is not inclined to the option of passing a “skinny” budget that keeps some services functioning without the full budget being adopted.
Lucas followed up later that day with a formal letter explaining no additional revenue from a reforecast would deter her from her goal to raise additional money from Virginia’s data center industry. To the Senator from Portsmouth, it seems, her goal is to tax data centers whether they need the revenue or not.
Governor Spanberger and Speaker Scott have rightly rejected the elimination of the promises the Commonwealth made to data centers to lure them to Virginia. Breaking that promise would not only hurt this critical industry but would also send a message to other businesses considering relocating to Virginia that the Commonwealth’s promises can’t be trusted.
As I detailed last month, without an appropriations bill in place, the state government shuts down. Employees and bills cannot be paid. The state’s long-standing, sterling AAA-rated fiscal and financial reputation would be obliterated.
The House is scheduled to return on Thursday June 18th. The Senate returns the following Tuesday, June 22nd. Immediately after the Senate returns, a series of Democratic-caucus fundraisers begins at the Omni Homestead in Hot Springs. Then the budget will be rapidly printed (it will still take some time!) and sent to Governor Spanberger for her action.
House rules for this special session require the budget to be published 48-hours in advance. So, if we don’t have full choreography among all three partners in this dance by Tuesday June 15th, we likely do not have a budget done in time to prevent a government shut down.
A truly historic and ignoble feat.
As a political conservative and a longtime staffer for Republican elected officials, I have enjoyed the “Dems in Disarray” meme playing out live and in living color over the past few months.
But I’m expecting my first child in September. I live in Virginia and will live here forever. This is now past the point of being funny.
Lucas and Surovell are right to avoid a “continuing resolution” or even a “skinny budget.” At this late stage in the game, it would do nothing to restore the confidence being drained out of the Commonwealth by this fight.
But they are wrong to hold public employees, local governments, and the entire Commonwealth of Virginia hostage for political gain.
Ali Ahmad is a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Jefferson Forum and served as the Deputy Chief of Staff for Governor Glenn Youngkin and can be reached at ali@jeffersonforum.org
